Weather Related Scenarios for the Natural Gas System: California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment
Providing key Information for the energy sector to adapt to a changing climate
The Regents of California, San Diego
Recipient
La Jolla, CA
Recipient Location
38th
Senate District
77th
Assembly District
$513,295
Amount Spent
Completed
Project Status
Project Result
The research team developed the climate and sea level rise scenarios that were used for several research projects designed to investigate how climate change would affect the energy system and how to ameliorate climate impacts. The Energy Commission is using these scenarios to estimate changes in energy demand due to climate change. The same scenarios will be used, as in the past, for long-term planning by other agencies such as the California Department of Water Resources, and local entities. Two final reports that are part of this study were released as part of California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment.
View Final ReportThe Issue
Existing climate scenarios do not include some factors (e.g., solar radiation, cooling degrees days) that are important to estimate natural gas demand and the potential impacts of climate change to the natural gas system. For example, coastal natural gas facilities are exposed to storms that will increase in frequency with climate change. New quasi-probabilistic projections are needed for risk assessments of the coastal natural gas infrastructure located in California.
Project Innovation
The researchers performed the following main tasks: 1) produced enhanced climate scenarios by adding the simulation of other variables, such as relative humidity and wind velocity; 2) estimated potential changes in cooling-degree-days over the 21st century in key locations in California; 3) developed quasi-probabilistic sea level rise projections; and, 4) developed drought scenarios informed by the paleo-record as well as by global climate model projections.
Project Benefits
New adaptation laws mandate that different sectors of the economy start adapting to a changing climate. The work done under this grant fill significant data gaps essential for the development of climate adaptation plans for the energy sector. The CPUC plans to require the use of the scenarios developed under this work for the development of climate adaptation strategies for electrical and natural gas investor owned utilities (IOUs). ICF, under a different grant, used the scenarios developed under this project to identify the vulnerability of the natural gas system in the SDG&E service territory. UC Irvine and UC Santa Cruz are also using these scenarios for on-going projects in the SoCalGas and PG&E areas, respectively.
Environmental Sustainability
Climate scenarios will be used to reduce adverse impacts to the energy system.
Safety
The research provides climate scenarios, sea level rise projections, drought scenarios, and wildfire scenarios that will play a vital role in the state's ability to safely adapt to a changing climate.
Key Project Members
Dan Cayan
Subrecipients
The Regents of the University of California, on behalf of the Davis Campus
The Regents of the University of California, Merced
