Understanding and Mitigating Barriers to Wind Energy Expansion in California

Improving understanding of climate impacts on wind regimes over a 10-20 year horizon

Grid Decarbonization and Decentralization Variable Renewable Generation

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Recipient

Berkeley, CA

Recipient Location

9th

Senate District

14th

Assembly District

beenhere

$200,000

Amount Spent

closed

Completed

Project Status

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Project Result

The project was completed in 2018. The final report is online at https://www.energy.ca.gov/2018publications/CEC-500-2018-035/CEC-500-201…. The study discovered that observable large-scale patterns such as El Nino can help improve near-term predictions of wind generation. Based on future wind projections from one climate model, the team predicts that with climate change, wind power would increase during summer in most of the state and decrease during fall and winter. This study improves the characterization of uncertainty around the magnitude and variability in space and time of California's wind resources in the near future, which can reduce risk to investors and lead to greater investment in wind energy. The team communicated through three journal articles in 2018, wind investors on TAC, and an industry consultant as a project partner.

The Issue

The need to transition from traditional hydrocarbon-based sources of energy becomes ever more compelling as energy demand rises in tandem with the necessity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Wind energy already plays a key role in diversifying and greening many energy portfolios. However, wind speeds vary across space and time, which affects where wind farms should be sited, as well as their reliability. Accurate projections of wind energy potential and investment in the industry depend on the stability and predictability of wind resources and the operating environment, which are not well understood in a changing climate.

Project Innovation

The research used a combination of global re-analysis datasets, a unique set of observations, and high-resolution global climate model simulations to help identify and characterize the extent to which regions in California may exhibit vulnerability or new opportunity in terms of changes to wind resource magnitude, spatial and temporal variability, and/or operating conditions of sufficient magnitude to alter their viability for wind energy development. The unique strength of this research lies in the use of a next generation variable resolution global climate model that has the ability to simulate climate change over a limited area region, i.e., California, in a computationally cost effective manner.

Project Benefits

This project will help overcome a key barrier to long-term wind energy investment that can help California meet its renewable energy and climate change mitigation goals. Improving the understanding of wind resource magnitude and variability over many time scales and in the context of climate change can improve the precision with which wind resources can be forecast. Technological advancement was realized through use of a next-generation variable-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model that is capable of simulating climate and climate change at relatively high spatial resolution (7km to 14km) over California. This was the first time that a variable-resolution climate modeling system has been used for a specific energy application.

Affordability

As the science and understanding of wind resource variability over many time scales are improved, the precision with which wind resources can be forecast will improve, which will lower the risk, and associated costs, of developin

Reliability

The project will improve the characterization of uncertainty around the magnitude and variability in space and time of California's wind resource in the near and mid-term. Grid operators could use more accurate projections of pot