Probabilistic Seasonal and Decadal Forecasting for the Natural Gas System
Improving seasonal and decadal probabilistic forecasts of climate and weather conditions in California that correlate to the natural gas demand.
The Regents of California, San Diego
Recipient
La Jolla, CA
Recipient Location
38th
Senate District
77th
Assembly District
$311,368
Amount Spent
Completed
Project Status
Project Result
Significant progress were achieved, demonstrating good performance with probabilistic forecasts as far out as a few months in advance. Results show that improved predictability is possible for only a few months in advance. The team examined decadal forecasts from different research centers around the world and found relatively poor performance. The final report contributed to California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment.
The Issue
Natural gas, used for both domestic and industrial applications, is a primary source of energy in California. Demand for natural gas varies because of several factors, including changing weather and climate and climate conditions. Because gas demand responds to these variations and changes, and thus can vary significantly from one year to the next and also over decades, better predictions of the weather and climate variation would be useful for State agencies and utility managers in various types of operations decisions and planning.
Project Innovation
This project develops weather and climate forecast models that provide seasonal predictions for temperature and precipitation of 0-9 months and decadal predictions of 10-20 years for selected meteorological stations in California. The average projected temperature and precipitation from 10 downscaled global climate models will be constructed to estimate the mean changes and spread of possible changes over the next 20 years. Hindcasts of temperature and precipitation, using the same methodology, will be compared with historical observed data to evaluate decadal forecast skill. These projections will form the basis of 10-20 year lead-time predictions of weather and climate fluctuations that will affect California. Preliminary results show that improved predictability is possible for only a few months in advance
Project Benefits
This project provides information that can improve California's natural gas operations through planning for those parts of the system that are impacted by weather/climate fluctuations.
Reliability
Improved forecasting of short and long-term weather and climatic variability will improve operation of the natural gas system allowing utilities to anticipate periods of greater and lesser demand. Natural gas customers will benefit through the establishment of a more reliable, more efficient, and possibly less expensive supply.
Energy Security
Improved forecasting of short and long-term weather and climatic variability will help ensure that adequate natural gas resources are available increasing energy security.
Key Project Members
Trevor Johnson
Subrecipients
The Regents of California, San Diego
