Development of Climate Projections for California and Identification of Priority Projections
The Regents of California, San Diego
Recipient
La Jolla, CA
Recipient Location
38th
Senate District
77th
Assembly District
$1,150,249
Amount Spent
Active
Project Status
Project Update
A robust downscaled climate data set for California, produced by this research, is now available on the Cal-Adapt Analytics Engine. The data set includes several variables dynamically and Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA)2-Hybrid downscaled to 3 km, projections from two hydrologic models, and extreme sea level projections. Additionally, general use projections were identified as a subset of models that could be used if necessary. The Final Report is under development.
The Issue
To plan for and adapt to climate change impacts requires state-of-the-art information at fine spatial scales. However, global climate projections are carried out at coarse resolution. To be useful for California applications, the global models' output must first be downscaled to a much finer scale to account for the complex topography and regional climate of California's varied landscape. Many types of data are needed, such as temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, snowpack, runoff and sea level rise.
Project Innovation
This project integrated the latest bias correction and downscaling approaches applied to the recently produced global climate models (GCMs) with an engagement process to develop a robust, usable, set of climate projections applicable for California. The dynamical and hybrid statistical-dynamical downscaling along with the hydrologic modeling, hourly sea level projections proposed is unique. It provides California with one of the world's most comprehensive, high resolution climate data sets and by working with stakeholders the data developed will be regionally relevant. This project provides the climate projections that IOUs and other stakeholders need to plan and adapt to such changes. Both a full and comprehensive set of data, and a reduced set of general use projections are supplied. The project developed data that can be levearged by the California’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment and studies in agriculture, human health, water management, infrastructure planning, energy demand, and wildfire threats.
Project Goals
Project Benefits
This research provides clearer insight into how climate change may affect California’s energy system, improving long-term reliability and safety. The research supports IOUs to be better able to anticipate changes in energy demand, supply, by developing detailed, locally relevant climate projections of how changes in climate may impact energy demand and supply based on changes in temperature, humidity, winds, and streamflow (hydroelectric). Additionally, the projections provide information and scenarios of how climate change could impact energy infrastructure and affect both reliability and safety, due to climate impacts such as higher temperatures, fire weather and exposure to flooding. This research supports IOUs in planning and adapting more effectively, reducing outages, enhancing safety, and ultimately supporting a more resilient and cost-effective energy system for customers.
Reliability
The downscaled climate projections provide information to the IOUs and broader energy sector about how climate change may impact energy demand and supply based on changes in temperature, humidity, winds, and streamflow.
Safety
The downscaled climate projections provide information and scenarios of how climate change could impact infrastructure affecting both reliability and safety of the electricity system.
Key Project Members
Dan Cayan
Julie Kalansky
Subrecipients
The Regents of the University of California on behalf of the Berkeley campus
The Regents of the University of California on behalf of the Los Angeles Campus
Match Partners
The Regents of the University of California on behalf of the Los Angeles Campus
