Climate-Informed Load Forecasting & Electric Grid Modeling to Support a Climate Resilient Transition to Zero-Carbon
Research is development critical data streams and concepts, evaluating of a range of scenarios including consideration or climate extremes, and delivering model outputs to support decision-making in planning for reliability, resilience, equity, and
Energy & Environmental Economics, Inc.
Recipient
San Francisco, CA
Recipient Location
11th
Senate District
17th
Assembly District
$812,988
Amount Spent
Active
Project Status
Project Update
In Fall 2025, E3 received climate-informed renewable generation profiles for wind, solar, and hydropower produced by EPC-21-037. E3 updated its RESOLVE model to ingest these profiles and the climate-informed load forecasts to develop optimized electricity system portfolios that reflect consideration of future climate impacts and meet California’s climate goals. The performance of these portfolios under potential reliability events in a future climate was investigated using RECAP, and the team has submitted a draft final report as well as an interim report highlighting key results for peer review as part of California’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment.
The Issue
Traditional electric system planning processes, both demand-side and supply-side, do not holistically integrate the scientifically understood impacts from climate change. Given that these planning processes support electric system investments in the state, this omission of climate-informed data may be impeding cost-effective investments and hindering the state’s ability to adequately plan for climate impacts and climate resilience. As the state plans to meet ambitious climate and clean energy goals, electrification in the transportation, buildings and industrial sectors will lead to increased reliance on, and investment in, the electricity grid. Operational and planning challenges that will arise due to California’s efforts to evolve its grid to meet decarbonization targets will be exacerbated by climate impacts. Adequately considering climate impacts will help to ensure that the grid remains reliable for these critical sectors and that grid investments promote greater climate resilience, generate economic benefits for California ratepayers, improve safety, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Project Innovation
This project develops new data and analysis to support robust climate-informed electricity sector modeling in California. The research team leverages datasets and products under development through other California Energy Commission (CEC)-funded EPIC research grants to develop novel datasets using the most recent climate model outputs. Climate impacts on electric sector model inputs are parameterized and several different modeling methodologies are explored to assess climate variability in planning. These analyses and data provide full Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) coverage to incorporate climate events spanning the WECC, and regional representation in California to illuminate impacts within the state on a more granular level. The outputs and products of these efforts provide a foundation for climate-informed electric sector planning and modeling in the state.
Project Goals
Project Benefits
By updating key electricity sector models to enable better representation of climate impacts across WECC and granularity within California, this project provides a foundation for climate-informed electric sector planning and modeling in the state. The data products and analytical insights generated by the project can support planning in a manner that promotes system reliability and resilience, optimized resource investments, and increased safety.
Reliability
The project develops parameterized climate impact datasets, load forecasting, and an electricity resource planning toolkit that can assess and evaluate electric reliability in the context of a zero-carbon grid.
Safety
The project evaluates extreme climate scenarios in a manner that facilitates informed grid planning and points the way towards a safer, more resilient grid that can respond more effectively to future climate change-induced contingencies.
Key Project Members
Amber Mahone
Jessie Knapstein
Subrecipients
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
